Frokost here we fucking go.

server/nightr/app.py

@@ -1,41 +1,66 @@
 import inspect
 import statistics
+from dataclasses import asdict
+from datetime import timedelta
+from typing import List
 
+import requests_cache
 from flask import Flask, jsonify
 
 from server.nightr.strategies import dmi, steam
+from server.nightr.util import Context
 
 app = Flask(__name__)
 
+requests_cache.install_cache("requests_cache.sqlite", expire_after=timedelta(minutes=10))
+
 
 strategies = {
     # name: (weight, probability function)
-    "dmi": (1.0, dmi.probability),
+    "dmi": (0.5, dmi.probability),
-    "steam": (0.5, steam.lol),
+    "steam": (1.0, steam.probability),
 }
 
 
 @app.route("/", methods=["GET", "POST"])
 def probabilities():
-    phone_data = None  # TODO
+    phone_data = {}  # TODO: get from POST request
+    context = Context(**phone_data)
 
-    probs = []
+    predictions: List[dict] = []
     for name, (weight, strategy) in strategies.items():
         try:
-            prob = strategy(phone_data)
+            prediction = strategy(context)
         except Exception as e:
             print(f"Strategy {name} failed: {e}")
             continue
-        probs.append({
+        predictions.append({
             "name": name,
-            "doc": inspect.getdoc(strategy),
+            "description": inspect.getdoc(strategy),
-            "prob": prob * weight,
+            "weight": weight,
+            "weighted_probability": prediction.probability * weight,
+            "night": prediction.probability > 0.5,
+            **asdict(prediction),
         })
 
+    mean = statistics.mean(p["weighted_probability"] for p in predictions)
+    median = statistics.median(p["weighted_probability"] for p in predictions)
+    night = mean > 0.5
+
+    # Calculate contributions of predictions
+    consensus_weight_sum = sum(p["weight"] for p in predictions if p["night"] == night)
+    for prediction in predictions:
+        # If this prediction agrees with the consensus it contributed
+        if prediction["night"] == night:
+            prediction["contribution"] = prediction["weight"] / consensus_weight_sum
+        else:
+            prediction["contribution"] = 0.0
+
     return jsonify({
-        "strategies": probs,
+        "predictions": predictions,
-        "mean": statistics.mean(p["prob"] for p in probs),
+        "weighted_probabilities_mean": mean,
-        "median": statistics.median(p["prob"] for p in probs),
+        "weighted_probabilities_median": median,
+        "night": night,
     })
 
 

server/nightr/strategies/dmi.py

@@ -1,6 +1,12 @@
+from server.nightr.util import Context, Prediction
 
-def probability(phone_data) -> float:
+
+def probability(context: Context) -> Prediction:
     """
     The data from DMI.
     """
-    return 0.63
+    p = Prediction()
+    p.probability = 0.7
+    p.reasons.append("It is raining in Tønder")
+
+    return p

server/nightr/strategies/steam.py

@@ -1,3 +1,12 @@
+from server.nightr.util import Context, Prediction
 
-def lol(phone_data) -> float:
+
-    return 0.21
+def probability(context: Context) -> Prediction:
+    """
+    How many players are currently online on Steam.
+    """
+    p = Prediction()
+    p.probability = 0.2
+    p.reasons.append("CSGO has more than 10.000 online players")
+
+    return p

server/nightr/util.py

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from typing import List, Tuple
+
+
+@dataclass
+class Context:
+    battery: float = 1.0
+    coordinates: Tuple[float, float] = (0.0, 0.0)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class Prediction:
+    probability: float = 0.5
+    reasons: List[str] = field(default_factory=list)

server/requirements.txt

@@ -1,2 +1,3 @@
 Flask==1.0.2
 requests==2.21.0
+requests-cache==0.4.13