This commit is contained in:
Christian Lynggaard Jørgensen 2019-04-06 23:11:41 +02:00
commit c461a2352e
12 changed files with 95 additions and 51 deletions

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@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ from typing import List
import requests_cache import requests_cache
from flask import Flask, jsonify, logging, request from flask import Flask, jsonify, logging, request
from .strategies import miloStrats, iss, cars_in_traffic, tide_strat, upstairs_neighbour, bing from .strategies import miloStrats, iss, cars_in_traffic, tide_strat, upstairs_neighbour, bing, battery
from .util import Context from .util import Context
app = Flask(__name__) app = Flask(__name__)
@ -30,6 +30,7 @@ strategies = {
"tide": tide_strat.is_tide, "tide": tide_strat.is_tide,
"upstairs_neighbour": upstairs_neighbour.check_games, "upstairs_neighbour": upstairs_neighbour.check_games,
"bing": bing.clock, "bing": bing.clock,
"battery_level": battery.battery_level,
} }
@ -78,14 +79,13 @@ def probabilities():
prediction["night"] = not prediction["night"] prediction["night"] = not prediction["night"]
# Calculate contributions of predictions # Calculate contributions of predictions
consensus_weight_sum = sum(p["weight"] for p in predictions if p["night"] == night) weight_sum = sum(p["weight"] for p in predictions)
for prediction in predictions: for prediction in predictions:
# If this prediction agrees with the consensus it contributed prediction["contribution"] = prediction["weight"] / weight_sum
if prediction["night"] == night:
prediction["contribution"] = prediction["weight"] / consensus_weight_sum
else:
prediction["contribution"] = 0.0
# If this prediction disagrees with the consensus it contributed negatively
if prediction["night"] != night:
prediction["contribution"] *= -1
return jsonify({ return jsonify({
"predictions": predictions, "predictions": predictions,
"weighted_probabilities_mean": mean, "weighted_probabilities_mean": mean,

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@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
from ..util import Context, Prediction
def battery_level(context: Context) -> Prediction:
"""
If the battery is low, it's probably bedtime soon.
"""
p = Prediction()
if context.battery > 60:
p.reasons.append("Battery level's good, so it's probably still early in the day.")
elif context.battery > 30:
p.reasons.append("Battery level's getting low, so it's probably around dinnertime.")
elif context.battery > 10:
p.reasons.append("Your phone is dying, so it's bedtime soon?")
else:
p.reasons.append("Your phone's practically dead, so it's probably around four in the morning.")
p.probability = 1 - (context.battery / 100) # night is inverse proportional to battery level
return p

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@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ def clock(context: Context) -> Prediction:
It's nighttime if Bing says it's daytime. It's nighttime if Bing says it's daytime.
""" """
p = Prediction() p = Prediction()
p.weight = 0.5 p.weight = 0.02
headers = { headers = {
'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_9_3) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/35.0.1916.47 Safari/537.36'} 'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; Intel Mac OS X 10_9_3) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/35.0.1916.47 Safari/537.36'}
@ -22,12 +22,12 @@ def clock(context: Context) -> Prediction:
time = datetime.strptime(time_str, "%H:%M") time = datetime.strptime(time_str, "%H:%M")
night = time.hour < 6 or time.hour >= 22 night = time.hour < 6 or time.hour >= 22
time_description = "" if night else "daytime" time_description = "nighttime" if night else "daytime"
time_description_oppersite = "daytime" if night else "nighttime" time_description_oppersite = "daytime" if night else "nighttime"
p.reasons.append(f"Bing says its {time_description}.") p.reasons.append(f"Bing says its {time_description}.")
p.reasons.append(f"We don't really trust it.") p.reasons.append(f"But we don't really trust it (who does?).")
p.reasons.append(f"Let's guess its {time_description_oppersite}.") p.reasons.append(f"Let's guess it's {time_description_oppersite}.")
p.probability = 1 - p.probability p.probability = 1 - p.probability

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@ -27,13 +27,13 @@ def cars_in_traffic(context: Context) -> Prediction:
diff = day_avr - night_avr diff = day_avr - night_avr
if curr_avg >= day_avr: if curr_avg >= day_avr:
p.reasons.append(f"Because {curr_avg} cars are driving around Aarhus right now and {day_avr} is the expected number for daytime") p.reasons.append(f"Because {curr_avg:.1f} cars are driving around Aarhus right now and {day_avr:.1f} is the expected number for daytime")
p.probability = 0.0 p.probability = 0.0
elif curr_avg <= night_avr: elif curr_avg <= night_avr:
p.reasons.append(f"Because {curr_avg} cars are driving around Aarhus right now and {night_avr} is the expected number for nighttime") p.reasons.append(f"Because {curr_avg:.1f} cars are driving around Aarhus right now and {night_avr:.1f} is the expected number for nighttime")
p.probability = 1.0 p.probability = 1.0
else: else:
p.reasons.append(f"Because average for daytime is {day_avr} and average for nighttime is {night_avr}, but the current average is {curr_avg}") p.reasons.append(f"Because average for daytime is {day_avr:.1f} and average for nighttime is {night_avr:.1f}, but the current average is {curr_avg:.1f}")
res = 1 - curr_avg / diff res = 1 - curr_avg / diff
p.probability = res p.probability = res

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@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
import itertools import itertools
import logging
from datetime import datetime from datetime import datetime
from math import pi, sqrt, sin, cos, atan2 from math import pi, sqrt, sin, cos, atan2
@ -14,7 +13,7 @@ tf = TimezoneFinder(in_memory=True)
def night_on_iss(context: Context) -> Prediction: def night_on_iss(context: Context) -> Prediction:
""" """
It is night if it is night on the ISS and it is currently orbiting above us. It is night if it is night on the ISS and it is currently orbiting above us. http://www.isstracker.com/
""" """
p = Prediction() p = Prediction()

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@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ def is_restaurant_open(name, open, close) -> Prediction:
soup = BeautifulSoup(r.content, features='html5lib') soup = BeautifulSoup(r.content, features='html5lib')
listing_groups = soup.find_all('div', {'class': 'listing-group'}) listing_groups = soup.find_all('div', {'class': 'listing-group'})
p.reasons.append("Hopefully we are not banned from Just-eat ..") #p.reasons.append("Hopefully we are not banned from Just-eat ..")
nice_group = None nice_group = None
for x in listing_groups: for x in listing_groups:
@ -32,10 +32,12 @@ def is_restaurant_open(name, open, close) -> Prediction:
all_listings = nice_group.find_all('a', {'class': 'mediaElement'}) all_listings = nice_group.find_all('a', {'class': 'mediaElement'})
if any(name in x['href'] for x in all_listings): if any(name in x['href'] for x in all_listings):
p.reasons.append(f"{name} is currently open. We conclude from this, that there is {1 / 11}% chance of it being night outside!") p.reasons.append(f"Our favorite pizza place, {name}, is currently open.")
p.reasons.append(f"We conclude from this, that there is {1 / 11}% chance of it being night outside")
p.probability = 1 / 11 p.probability = 1 / 11
else: else:
p.reasons.append(f"{name} is not open. We can conclude from this, that there is {1 - (1/11)}% chance of it currently being night outside! ") p.reasons.append(f"Our favorite pizza place, {name}, is closed.")
p.reasons.append(f"We can conclude from this, that there is {1 - (1/11)}% chance of it currently being night outside!")
p.probability = 1 - (1 / 11) p.probability = 1 - (1 / 11)
return p return p

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@ -11,15 +11,18 @@ def camImgStrat(context : Context) -> Prediction:
The contents of the camera image The contents of the camera image
""" """
img = context.image img = context.image
average = img.mean() average = float(img.mean())
p = Prediction() p = Prediction()
p.weight = 0.7 p.weight = 1.0
if average < 100:
p.probability = 1.0 p.probability = 1 - round((average/255),3)
p.reasons.append('Image was dark') if average < 128:
p.weight = round(1 - (average/255), 3)
p.reasons.append('Camera image was dark, so the sun has probably set.')
else: else:
p.reasons.append('Image was light') p.weight = round(average / 255, 3)
p.probability = 0.0 p.reasons.append('Camera image was light, so the sun is still shining.')
return p return p
@ -34,10 +37,10 @@ def australiaStrat(context : Context) -> Prediction:
if hour > 22 or hour < 6: if hour > 22 or hour < 6:
p.probability = 0.0 p.probability = 0.0
p.reasons.append('It\'s night-time in Australia') p.reasons.append('It\'s night-time in Australia, so it must be day-time here.')
else: else:
p.probability = 1.0 p.probability = 1.0
p.reasons.append('It\'s day-time in Australia') p.reasons.append('It\'s day-time in Australia, so it must be night-time here.')
return p return p
@ -46,6 +49,7 @@ def tv2newsStrat(context : Context) -> Prediction:
The number of articles releases in the last few hours on TV2.dk The number of articles releases in the last few hours on TV2.dk
""" """
r = requests.get('http://mpx.services.tv2.dk/api/latest') r = requests.get('http://mpx.services.tv2.dk/api/latest')
data = r.json() data = r.json()
publish_dates = [(x['pubDate'])//1000 for x in data][:10] publish_dates = [(x['pubDate'])//1000 for x in data][:10]
delta_times = [] delta_times = []

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@ -6,10 +6,11 @@ import json
import numpy as np import numpy as np
from server.nightr.strategies.strat_utils import write_json from .strat_utils import write_json
from ..util import Context, Prediction
def find_data(time): def write_data(time):
write_json("https://portal.opendata.dk/api/3/action/datastore_search?resource_id=2a82a145-0195-4081-a13c-b0e587e9b89c", "parking_aarhus", time) write_json("https://portal.opendata.dk/api/3/action/datastore_search?resource_id=2a82a145-0195-4081-a13c-b0e587e9b89c", "parking_aarhus", time)
def load_data(): def load_data():
@ -18,7 +19,7 @@ def load_data():
Y = [] Y = []
for filename in glob.glob("parking_aarhus*"): for filename in glob.glob("parking_aarhus*"):
p_class = '2330' in filename p_class = '2235' in filename
with open(filename) as file: with open(filename) as file:
data = json.load(file) data = json.load(file)
@ -32,13 +33,26 @@ def load_data():
def train(): def train():
X, Y = load_data() X, Y = load_data()
classifier = svm.SVC(C=10, gamma=0.01, probability=True) classifier = svm.SVC(gamma=0.01, probability=True)
classifier.fit(X, Y) classifier.fit(X, Y)
joblib.dump(classifier, "nightness_classifier.pkl") joblib.dump(classifier, "nightness_classifier.pkl")
def predict(X): def predict(X):
classifier = joblib.load("nightness_classifier.pkl") classifier = joblib.load("nightness_classifier.pkl")
prob = classifier.predict_proba(X) prob = classifier.predict_proba(np.array(X).reshape(1, -1))
return prob[0, 1] return prob[0, 1]
train()
def perform_svm_pred(context: Context) -> Prediction:
p = Prediction()
data = requests.get('https://portal.opendata.dk/api/3/action/datastore_search?resource_id=2a82a145-0195-4081-a13c-b0e587e9b89c')
records = data.json()['result']['records']
X = [house['vehicleCount'] / house['totalSpaces'] for house in records]
X = [min(x, 1) for x in X]
p.reasons.append("We only have two data points")
p.reasons.append("Our only two data points have 11 dimensions")
p.reasons.append("We are using a SVM")
p.probability = predict(X)
return p

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@ -19,10 +19,9 @@ def is_tide(context: Context) -> Prediction:
month, cur_year_total_cars, last_year_total_cars = determine_month() month, cur_year_total_cars, last_year_total_cars = determine_month()
month = int(month) month = int(month)
p.reasons.append(f"Because the month is f{calendar.month_name[month]}") p.reasons.append(f"The month is {calendar.month_name[month]}")
p.reasons.append(f"Because the number of cars having driven on the Storbæltsbro is f{cur_year_total_cars}") p.reasons.append(f"The number of cars having driven on the Storbæltsbro is {cur_year_total_cars}, in the current year")
p.reasons.append(f"And because the number of cars having driven over it in the last year is f{last_year_total_cars}") p.reasons.append(f"The number of cars having driven over it in the last year is {last_year_total_cars}, thus the frequency is: {last_year_total_cars / cur_year_total_cars}")
tide_data = requests.get('https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Bruger_upload/Tidevand/2019/Aarhus.t.txt') tide_data = requests.get('https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Bruger_upload/Tidevand/2019/Aarhus.t.txt')
@ -47,27 +46,27 @@ def is_tide(context: Context) -> Prediction:
average_delta = timedelta(seconds=average_inc) average_delta = timedelta(seconds=average_inc)
if last_match[1] < 0 and last_match[1] < current_water_level: # Increasing if last_match[1] < 0 and last_match[1] <= current_water_level: # Increasing
time = last_match time = last_match
while time[1] != current_water_level: while time[1] != current_water_level:
time[0] += average_delta time[0] += average_delta
time[1] += 1 time[1] += 1
elif last_match[1] < 0 and last_match[1] > current_water_level: elif last_match[1] < 0 and last_match[1] >= current_water_level:
time = last_match time = last_match
while time[1] != current_water_level: while time[1] != current_water_level:
time[0] += average_delta time[0] += average_delta
time[1] -= 1 time[1] -= 1
elif last_match[1] > 0 and last_match[1] > current_water_level: # Decreasing elif last_match[1] > 0 and last_match[1] >= current_water_level: # Decreasing
time = last_match time = last_match
while time[1] != current_water_level: while time[1] != current_water_level:
time[0] += average_delta time[0] += average_delta
time[1] -= 1 time[1] -= 1
elif last_match[1] > 0 and last_match[1] < current_water_level: elif last_match[1] > 0 and last_match[1] <= current_water_level:
time = last_match time = last_match
while time[1] != current_water_level: while time[1] != current_water_level:
@ -78,9 +77,9 @@ def is_tide(context: Context) -> Prediction:
moments.append(time[0]) moments.append(time[0])
night = sum([1 for x in moments if 6 >= x.hour or x.hour >= 22]) night = sum([1 for x in moments if 6 >= x.hour or x.hour >= 22])
p.reasons.append(f"The water level is currently at {current_water_level}")
p.reasons.append(f"The number of times the water is at the current level at nighttime is: {night}, compared to the total amount of times in {calendar.month_name[month]}, being {len(moments)}")
p.reasons.append(f"And because the number of times the water is at the current level at nighttime is: {night}, compared to the total amount of times in {calendar.month_name[month]}, being {len(moments)}") p.probability = 1 - (night / len(moments))
p.probability = night / len(moments)
return p return p

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@ -1,12 +1,17 @@
import requests import requests
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
from datetime import datetime from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from ..util import Prediction, Context from ..util import Prediction, Context
last_update = datetime.min
def update(): def update():
requests.post('https://euw.op.gg/summoner/ajax/renew.json/', data={'summonerId': 34009256}) global last_update
now = datetime.utcnow()
if (now - timedelta(minutes=5)) > last_update:
requests.post('https://euw.op.gg/summoner/ajax/renew.json/', data={'summonerId': 34009256})
last_update = now
def check_games(context: Context) -> Prediction: def check_games(context: Context) -> Prediction:
@ -29,12 +34,12 @@ def check_games(context: Context) -> Prediction:
last_game_in_hours = (((datetime.now() - last_played_game).seconds)/60/60) last_game_in_hours = (((datetime.now() - last_played_game).seconds)/60/60)
if last_game_in_hours < 2: if last_game_in_hours < 2:
p.reasons.append("Alexanders upstairs neighbour is currently playing league") p.reasons.append("Alexander's upstairs neighbour is currently playing league")
p.probability = 0.8 p.probability = 0.8
else: else:
last_game_in_hours = min(24.0, last_game_in_hours) last_game_in_hours = min(24.0, last_game_in_hours)
p.reasons.append(f"Alexanders upstairs neighbour has not played league for {last_game_in_hours} hours!") p.reasons.append(f"Alexanders upstairs neighbour has not played league for {last_game_in_hours:.2f} hours!")
p.probability = 1 - (last_game_in_hours / 24) p.probability = 1 - (last_game_in_hours / 24)
return p return p

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@ -9,8 +9,8 @@ import numpy as np
@dataclass @dataclass
class Context: class Context:
battery: int = 100 battery: int = 55
position: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=lambda: {'latitude': 53.0, 'longitude': 9.0}) position: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=lambda: {'latitude': 53.0, 'longitude': 9.0}) # Denmark somewhere
image: np.ndarray = None image: np.ndarray = None
# App settings # App settings